In today’s newsletter:

• Opportunities & Updates

• What Truelink Likes About the Events Space

• The AI Impact: Opportunities & Risks

• Why Deals Fall Through

• The GES Acquisition & Growth Plan

• Green Flags for CEOs

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Opportunities & Updates

• I’ll be speaking at the Skift Meetings Forum in NYC on September 15th in a session (tentatively) titled Event Entrepreneurship: Big Ideas Require Bold Moves. Heather Mason and Robyn Duda will talk about their journeys in launching their own events (The Impact Lounge and RacquetX respectively), and I’ll provide insights on how buyers value event businesses, and the state of M&A in general. Should be a fun session!

• In January I joined the Events Venture Group, a collaborative community of 30+ industry veterans looking to support startups or early stage event businesses with investment, mentorship, and strategic guidance. If you’re an entrepreneur building a new event, tech product, or other business, this is the smartest money you can get. Learn more here.

• I’m advising an event production company (creative, scenic, staging, lighting, sound, etc.) on a roll-up. We’re looking for companies with around $1M in EBITDA. To learn more, email me here.

• I’m working with a meeting & event agency looking to acquire one or more smaller agencies (Adjusted EBITDA of $250k - $1M) as part of their growth strategy. To confidentially explore this opportunity, please call or email me.

The View From Private Equity

In October of 2024, Truelink Capital, a Los Angeles-based private equity firm, acquired GES from Viad Corp (NYSE: VVI) in a blockbuster deal valuing the company at $535 million - just under 6 times adjusted EBITDA - making it one of the largest M&A transactions in the event sector in recent years. By taking the company private, they’re creating space to invest in long term growth, whereas public companies tend to be more focused on meeting current earnings targets.

GES itself is comprised of several companies: GES (exhibition & trade show management), Spiro (experiential agency), OnPeak (hotel booking and room block management), Show Tech (power & lighting), and Visit by GES (event tech platform). GES drives the lion’s share of revenue, though Spiro’s rapid growth likely made this a more attractive opportunity.

Agencies in general have higher growth trajectories than service contractors, which is a more mature industry. In addition, the trade show contracting space is already heavily concentrated among the top two players – Freeman and GES – while the agency landscape is far more fragmented, presenting opportunities for growth through acquisition and consolidation.

Given the size of this investment, Truelink clearly sees enormous potential in GES, and the event industry in general. I sat down with Truelink’s managing partner Luke Myers to learn how they plan to grow GES, what excites him about investing in the events industry, the impact of AI, why deals fall through, what he looks for in a CEO, and more.

Being immersed in the industry, it can be hard to see the big picture from the inside, which is why Luke’s fresh takes are truly insightful. I certainly learned a lot in speaking with him. Interestingly, you’ll see many of his comments echo the points I made in my last post, Tailwinds.

What interests you about the events industry that makes you want to invest in the space?

There are three principles that underpin Truelink’s interest in the events space

1. A generational shift in the prioritization of experiences over possessions, led by Millennials and GenZ – we view this as a long-term multi-decade shift, and brands, professional networks, and associations are seeking avenues to participate in this trend in a meaningful way

2. Experiences deliver a deeper, more meaningful impact with the consumer or professional – while consumers (or professionals) are inundated with a flurry of content and information across social media platforms, emails, and the internet, an event, with the right execution, can command user attention for an extended period of time, delivering a powerful and lasting connection between an individual and a brand, network, or concept. We believe brands crave this type of interaction with the user and we’re excited about investing behind a leader (GES) that can help brands, associations, and non-profits achieve an elevated impact with a desired audience

3. Barriers to entry and replacement risk – events are expensive and execution is challenging; it’s a very difficult and expensive space to enter without capital and expertise and, while so many sub-verticals within the services segment are ripe for disruption, we view the events space as highly durable, with favorable tailwinds

Collectively, the space uniquely possesses these three distinct attributes – macro tailwinds, high impact (to both customers and participants), and barriers to entry – and, in basic terms, provides a high upside, low downside opportunity for investors in market leaders and players of scale.

How big of a role do you see AI playing, and in what capacity?

AI will impact every segment in a multitude of ways – many of which are not known today. Right now, we’re currently focused on two – one pro and one con

The positive – with AI and the ability to leverage data and insights in real time, we can make events more personalized, engaging, and impactful. Every event is an opportunity to interact with thousands of attendees and gain critical insights around (a) what users liked and (b) where we could improve the experience. We’re currently very focused on turning each event in a scalable data collection environment, with data from one event informing a better experience across our entire event portfolio. Long term, we see multiple mechanisms to collect data and package the insights into key takeaways for our brand partners, although this is a couple quarters away. AI makes both the near term and long term much more feasible – and we’re really excited about the impact AI will have on the caliber of our events and the incremental insights we can share with our customers

The risk – the biggest threat to the events space is a professional or consumer’s preference to stay at home and not attend a conference, product launch, or promotional event. It’s hard to ignore that AI will make the at-home experience, whether professional or leisure, better tomorrow than it is today. From our perspective, events and experiences are impossible to replicate, but we’re cognizant that the appeal of the alternative will improve – and we’re focused on leveraging AI and new technology to continue improving the out-of-home experience and providing attendees with distinct, irreplicable experiences at each event.

How fragmented is the event sector, and is that part of the opportunity you see?

When we invested in GES, we saw M&A as a clear driver of value and growth. Six months into our investment, the opportunity is even larger than we expected. We have been pleasantly surprised with (a) the sheer number of add-on opportunities, and (b) the unique pockets of TAM within the events space (and distinct leaders in each). From a consolidation standpoint, the segment is in the third inning – and we could not be more excited to invest behind a player and management team that’s positioned to drive sector consolidation and accretive inorganic growth.

What types of companies does your firm invest in?

Our firm looks for four key pillars

1. Large Total Addressable Market (TAM)

2. High degree of market fragmentation

3. Well established brand and management team

4. Opportunity for operational improvement. Putting a finer point on this, we like instances where a company, for a wide range of reasons, has not quite reached its potential; and our operations team can help management, under our ownership, bring a business to new heights and an improved trajectory

From a size standpoint, we like businesses with between $20mm and $100mm of EBITDA. And from an industry standpoint, our main focus areas are Services (asset-lite) and Industrials (asset-heavy).

How does Truelink help its portfolio companies grow?

We add topline value in a wide variety of ways – I will share three broad buckets.

1. Eliminate growth burdens. We like situations where a business has a great brand and foundation, but external factors have stunted growth. This can include a burdensome capital structure (too much debt), a burdensome ownership structure (parent company managing a subsidiary for profitability), or a risk-averse ownership situation, where a fund is managing a business for cash flow vs. growth. From our perspective, a simple change in ownership and some go-to-market tweaks can often have a pretty powerful impact on a business

   It’s important to note that, in many cases, the above instances can be effects vs. causes of slower growth – and we spend a material amount of time in our underwriting process understanding why a business has struggled to grow, and whether our playbook can have a meaningful impact on topline performance early in our hold period

2. Install a CRO. Many middle market businesses do not have a CRO. The CEO often serves in this function, or the team leans on top sales performers to set the revenue architecture for the business. We believe the CRO is paramount for a middle market business to growth from $100mm to $250mm (or more) and we often install a CRO (or similar position) within the first year of our ownership

3. M&A. As a firm, we’re very effective at driving tuck-in deal volume and closing transactions. M&A is a core competency for our firm and, given the comments in question 1 in this section, we typically enter situations where a business’ M&A competency has atrophied or was never developed, and we can turn this into a strength in the first 100 days of our hold period

What’s the biggest reason that deals fall through?

Companies miss performance or misrepresent their business. This can happen for a multitude of reasons and is very common in an M&A process. As a firm, we need to ensure that businesses we bring into our ecosystem, as platforms or as tuck-ins, perform in line with our underwrite and the biggest red flag is when a target misses performance while in market. We wholeheartedly recognize the pressure associated with setting compelling targets for a group of buyers while a company is for sale. However, as we pursue an investment with intent to acquiror, we need to have a high degree of certainty the business will achieve our base case, especially in the first year – if a company materially falls behind plan while in market, this can put our model into question and, in some instances, cause us to pause our diligence

What green flags do you look for in a CEO / founder?

Three things are particularly important to us:

1. Integrity – this is of the utmost importance to our firm.

2. Passion for the business – we look for founders and CEOs that love their business. We’ve found that with this passion comes critical insights around competitors, M&A targets, and opportunities for expansion, but it starts with passion – and we can build from there.

3. Team – has the individual surrounded themselves with a talented group, and does the individual place trust in his or her team? We’re found that businesses led by a dominant leader, who effectively wears all hats, are difficult to transform and are not conducive to our playbook.

What advice would you give an owner who is considering a sale in the near future?

Set forth a plan you know you’ll hit, empower your team during the sale process, and don’t hesitate to convey passion for your business!

A huge thank you to Luke for taking the time to share his thoughts with us, whic I found tremendously insightful. He’s one of a number of savvy investors placing big bets on the events industry, and I look forward to following GES’s journey under its new ownership.

Here’s to taking your event business to the next level!

Howard Givner
Senior Advisor | Oaklins: DeSilva & Phillips (M&A) email me
CEO | Heathcote Advisory Group (Consulting) email me

Thanks for reading! Please give me feedback by hitting reply.

Catch up on recent articles:

• Tailwinds

• Preparing Your Event Business For Sale

• 15 Agency CEOs Walk Into A Bar . . .

• The Silver Bullet to Doubling Your Profit Margins

• A Tale of 2 Acquisitions: Opus Group CEO Shares M&A Insights

• AI Is Creating Winners & Losers In Events: Which Will You Be?

If and when you’re ready, here are ways I work with event business owners:

• Business Coaching & Owner Accountability

• Business Diagnostic & Company Valuation

• Growth Consulting

• Exit Planning

• M&A (Buy Side & Sell Side)

Wanna chat? Email me, or schedule an intro call.

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